Global commodity prices are facing renewed upward pressure in 2026. In its 28 October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank projects overall commodity prices to rise 23% this year, led by a 32% increase in energy prices. For importers, the practical challenge is not simply predicting prices: it is budgeting for volatility across product costs, freight, insurance and delivery schedules.
Key takeaways · 28 October 2026
- World Bank baseline: overall commodity prices are projected to rise 23% in 2026, then fall 7% in 2027.
- Energy prices are projected to rise 32% in 2026; Brent crude is forecast to average $91/barrel.
- Food commodity prices are projected to increase about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027.
- Fertilizer prices are projected to rise 14% in 2026 before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026. These are forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes or current spot quotations.
World Bank commodity outlook: the main 2026 forecasts
The World Bank’s October outlook describes a market affected by several shocks at once: conflict-related disruption to energy production and shipping, continued Russia–Ukraine hostilities affecting energy and food markets, and El Niño risks to agricultural harvests. Its baseline assumes that conflicts affecting global commodity supplies do not intensify significantly.
| Commodity group or benchmark | World Bank outlook | Period | What importers should understand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall commodity prices | +23%, then −7% | 2026; 2027 | Broad index forecast; not a quote for an individual product. |
| Energy prices | +32% | 2026 | Higher energy costs can affect freight, production and agricultural inputs. |
| Brent crude oil | $91/barrel average; $79/barrel forecast | 2026; 2027 | Annual average forecasts, not today’s trading price. |
| Food commodity prices | About +10%; then +7% | 2026; 2027 | World Bank forecasts a cumulative increase of about 18% over the two years. |
| Fertilizers | +14%; returning to 2025 levels | 2026; 2027 | Fertilizer price index outlook, not the price of every fertilizer grade. |
| Metals | +25%, then −3% | 2026; 2027 | Group-level forecast; individual metals can move differently. |
| Precious metals | +40% | 2026 | Separate market group driven by safe-haven demand and uncertainty. |
Source and methodology: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (full report) and its official summary of the main forecasts. The table summarizes the published baseline; it does not combine these forecasts with spot assessments from other providers.
Why commodity prices are under pressure
Energy supply and shipping disruption
The World Bank says the Middle East conflict has reduced oil inventories and disrupted supply, while damage and risks to infrastructure add uncertainty. Its baseline forecast puts Brent at an average of $91 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027. These figures describe annual averages. They should not be used as an executable price for a specific date, grade or delivery location.
For bulk importers, a higher commodity benchmark is only one part of the landed cost. Freight, marine insurance, war-risk premiums, port charges, inspection and financing terms can materially change the final delivered price. Compare offers on the same basis—such as FOB against FOB or CIF against CIF—and confirm the destination port, shipment window and included costs.
For more on how delivery terms affect price comparisons, read Ruwad’s guide to war-risk insurance in commodity shipping and its explanation of official selling prices in fertilizer trade.
Food prices, weather and agricultural inputs
The report projects food commodity prices to rise about 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027. It identifies disrupted grain shipments, El Niño-related harvest risks, and higher fuel and fertilizer costs as contributing pressures. These are global group-level forecasts; they do not mean every food commodity or origin will rise by the same percentage.
Buyers sourcing wheat, rice, sugar or edible oils should therefore track the specific origin, grade, harvest calendar, export policy, freight route and destination requirements. A global index can flag risk, but it cannot replace an origin-specific offer or a current market assessment. Ruwad’s guides to Black Sea wheat exports and Brazilian ICUMSA 45 sugar provide more product-specific context.
Fertilizers: the index is not a granular-urea quote
The World Bank projects fertilizer prices to rise 14% in 2026, after a sharp rise in urea prices earlier in the year that subsequently eased. The report expects fertilizer prices to return to 2025 levels in 2027. This is a forecast for a broader fertilizer price group, not a direct prediction that granular urea will move by exactly 14% in every market.
Regional urea prices vary by grade, origin, assessment date and delivery basis. For example, ChemPortal’s 22 October 2026 assessment placed granular urea FOB Middle East at $445–$455 per metric tonne; this is a dated regional assessment, not a universal world price or a confirmed offer. Check the current urea price per ton update and the guide to prilled versus granular urea before comparing specifications or quotations.
Reference: ChemPortal urea prices and freight assessments, assessment date 22 October 2026. Prices and ranges are tied to the listed market and basis; they are not guaranteed to be available for purchase.
How importers can use the outlook in procurement planning
1. Build a landed-cost scenario, not just a target price
For each product, calculate a base case and at least one adverse scenario. Separate the commodity price from freight, insurance, port handling, inspection, financing and any applicable duties or taxes. Label assumptions clearly and update them when the route or shipment date changes. A forecast for an index should not be inserted as though it were a supplier quotation.
2. Compare offers on matching specifications and terms
Before comparing suppliers, align grade and quality, quantity, loading port, destination port, shipment period, inspection requirements, Incoterms and payment terms. A lower FOB number may not produce a lower landed cost if freight, insurance or delivery risks are materially different.
3. Monitor policy and logistics risks alongside price
Export restrictions, port disruptions, shipping route changes and insurance availability can alter the practical supply picture faster than annual forecasts. Use the World Bank outlook as a macro-level risk framework, then verify current product-level information before making a purchase decision.
4. Avoid treating a forecast as a guarantee
The World Bank warns that a more severe escalation could push prices higher than its baseline. Its adverse scenario includes Brent averaging $105 per barrel in 2027 and food commodity prices 12% above the baseline forecast. These are conditional scenario outcomes, not the central forecast. Buyers should test whether a contract or budget remains viable under a range of plausible outcomes.
Buyer takeaway
Use global forecasts to identify exposure and plan scenarios. Use dated, product-specific market assessments and written supplier quotations to make purchasing decisions. Confirm the price basis and all delivered-cost components before comparing offers.
Frequently asked questions
What is the World Bank’s commodity price forecast for 2026?
The World Bank projects overall commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026, with energy prices up 32%. It expects overall commodity prices to decline 7% in 2027 under its baseline scenario.
Will food commodity prices rise in 2027?
The October 2026 outlook projects food commodity prices to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027. This is a group-level forecast and does not imply identical changes for every crop, origin or grade.
Does the fertilizer forecast mean urea will rise 14%?
No. The 14% figure refers to the World Bank’s fertilizer price group forecast for 2026. Urea quotations depend on the specific grade, origin, market, assessment date and FOB or delivered basis.
Are the World Bank forecasts actual commodity prices?
No. They are forecasts for specified periods and benchmarks. A current purchase requires a dated market assessment or supplier quotation with the product specification, quantity, delivery terms and price basis stated clearly.
Plan your next commodity purchase with better market context
For importers and procurement teams, the October 2026 outlook reinforces the importance of monitoring price exposure, shipping conditions and product-specific supply. Ruwad Al Tasaheel supports commodity sourcing and trade facilitation. Buyers can contact our team with their product specification, target quantity, destination port and preferred delivery terms to discuss sourcing requirements.
Sources
- World Bank — Commodity Prices Set to Increase by 23% in 2026 as Global Shocks Mount, 28 October 2026.
- World Bank — Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (full report).
- ChemPortal — Urea prices per tonne, prilled, granular and freight, assessment date 22 October 2026.
Last updated: 29 October 2026. Forecasts and market assessments are time-sensitive and may change. Figures above retain the dates and definitions provided by their sources.