Fertilizer markets are not moving as one. Urea prices have eased from the extreme levels seen earlier in 2026 as additional Chinese export availability has been discussed, while phosphate fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP) face a different set of cost and supply pressures. For importers, this divergence matters: a general fertilizer forecast cannot replace a product-specific assessment of price, origin and shipment availability.
The World Bank’s October 28 Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts fertilizer prices to rise 14% in 2026 overall, then return toward 2025 levels in 2027. This is a broad annual forecast. It does not mean urea and DAP will follow the same path in every region.
Urea is influenced by nitrogen supply, gas and export policy. DAP depends on phosphate rock, ammonia, sulfur and sulfuric acid, as well as producer availability and trade restrictions. Compare each product separately and verify the current quote before making a commitment.
What the latest market reports indicate
The International Fertilizer Development Center’s October 21 bulletin reported that urea prices softened after new Chinese export announcements, while ammonium sulfate prices remained firm and phosphate markets continued to face constraints. The bulletin also noted that the actual timing and volume of Chinese urea exports were uncertain. Announced export allocations should therefore not be treated as cargoes already available to every buyer.
A separate IFDC bulletin published October 27 focused on sulfur. Sulfur is a key input in sulfuric acid production, which is essential to manufacturing phosphate fertilizers including DAP and MAP. Tight sulfur availability can raise production costs and constrain output even if the price direction for urea is easing.
Market reporting published by Dawn on October 24 also described a fall in urea prices following resumed Chinese supplies, while DAP remained elevated amid higher sulfur and ammonia costs. These reports are useful evidence of divergent pressures, but their quoted figures and market context must be checked against the buyer’s specific origin, grade and price basis.
Urea and DAP: different products, different drivers
| Factor | Urea | DAP |
|---|---|---|
| Main nutrient role | Nitrogen fertilizer | Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer |
| Important cost drivers | Natural gas, ammonia, plant operations and export availability | Phosphate rock, ammonia, sulfur, sulfuric acid and processing |
| Current reported pressure | Potential additional Chinese exports have weighed on prices, although realized volumes remain uncertain | Sulfur and ammonia costs and phosphate supply constraints remain important risks |
| Buyer priority | Confirm product type, origin, export permission and shipment window | Confirm grade, nutrient analysis, origin, input availability and delivery schedule |
Understanding the urea price references
Our urea price per ton update distinguishes two types of evidence available in late October. ChemPortal reported granular urea at $445 to $455 per metric ton FOB Middle East on October 22. CommodityScope’s October 27 assessment placed its midpoint at $447.50 per metric ton, with a range of $445.50 to $449.50, also on an FOB Middle East basis, and marked the assessment as low confidence.
These are regional assessments, not firm executable offers. They may not apply to prilled urea, other origins, different shipment windows or delivered prices. A separate monthly global benchmark series cited by CK Economics reported a September 2026 urea observation of $407.50 per metric ton. That monthly figure and a regional October FOB assessment should not be compared as though they were the same market measurement.
Always record the date, grade, origin, currency, unit and delivery basis when using a price reference. If a seller quotes CIF, confirm the destination port and freight assumptions. If a seller quotes FOB, obtain a current freight estimate before calculating landed cost.
Why DAP and phosphate inputs may remain under pressure
DAP production requires phosphate inputs and ammonia, while sulfur is used to produce sulfuric acid for phosphate processing. Sulfur availability therefore affects more than the sulfur market itself. Competition from other industrial users can also influence price and supply, and disruptions to energy or shipping can raise the delivered cost of several inputs at once.
These factors do not prove that DAP prices must rise continuously. Demand resistance, alternative supply, producer operating rates, export policy and buyer inventories can offset cost pressure. The right conclusion is that DAP has a distinct risk profile that deserves separate monitoring from urea.
Three scenarios for November
Scenario 1: Additional Chinese urea supply reaches the market
Greater export availability could continue to pressure urea offers, provided the volumes are released and shipped in practice. Buyers should verify the export window, supplier allocation, origin and loading port instead of assuming that announced supply is immediately accessible.
Scenario 2: Supply relief proves smaller or slower than expected
If shipments are delayed or available volumes are insufficient, the market could tighten again, especially if energy costs rise or demand strengthens. Buyers should avoid relying on an unconfirmed allocation when planning critical agricultural procurement.
Scenario 3: Phosphate input constraints persist
If sulfur, ammonia or phosphate supply remains tight, DAP costs may stay firm even while urea is softer. Importers should compare DAP offers separately and verify that grade, nutrient content and delivery terms match their requirements.
These are conditional scenarios based on published market commentary, not guaranteed price predictions.
Procurement checklist for urea and DAP
- Specify product type, grade and required nutrient analysis.
- Confirm origin, named loading port and destination port.
- Compare offers on the same FOB, CFR or CIF basis.
- Ask for a dated quotation and its validity period.
- Verify current export availability, not just announced policy or allocation volumes.
- Confirm inspection, sampling, quality tolerances and claims procedure.
- Check freight, insurance, shipment timing and possible port delays.
- Review payment terms and independently verify the counterparty and relevant documents.
For a broader perspective on energy, food and fertilizer risks, read our commodity market outlook for 2026. To discuss a sourcing requirement, visit Ruwad Al Tasaheel contact.
Frequently asked questions
Will urea prices keep falling in November?
That is not certain. Additional Chinese exports may put downward pressure on prices if the volumes reach international buyers, but energy costs, demand and regional logistics can change the direction.
Why can DAP remain expensive while urea gets cheaper?
The products have different production chains. Urea is particularly sensitive to nitrogen supply, natural gas and export availability, while DAP also depends on phosphate inputs, ammonia, sulfur and sulfuric acid.
Can I compare a global monthly urea benchmark with an FOB Middle East quote?
Only with clear qualifications. They differ by period, geography and potentially methodology. Do not present them as directly interchangeable prices.
Sources
- World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook press release, October 28, 2026.
- IFDC, Fertilizer Crisis Response Bulletin #34, October 21, 2026.
- IFDC, Fertilizer Crisis Response Bulletin #35, October 27, 2026.
- Dawn, Urea prices ease on Chinese supplies, October 24, 2026.
- ChemPortal, urea market assessment.
- CommodityScope, granular urea Middle East assessment.
Last updated: October 29, 2026. Market information is date-sensitive and should not be treated as a firm offer or price guarantee. Verify current quotations, export availability and shipment conditions before contracting.